New Seat Details - Somerset North East

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Somerset North East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	31,202	53.6%
LAB	17,512	30.1%
LIB	7,736	13.3%
Green	1,178	2.0%
OTH	585	1.0%
CON Majority	13,690	23.5%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Somerset North East: Map

List of old seats forming part of Somerset North East

Old seat: Somerset North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Somerset North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Somerset North East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Bath and North East Somerset	Bathavon North	5,586	Bath	2,474	1,290	518	0	121	0	0	32	4,435
Bath and North East Somerset	Bathavon South	2,105	Bath	1,039	555	231	0	54	0	0	9	1,888
Bath and North East Somerset	Bathavon West	1,984	Somerset North East	795	440	150	0	38	0	0	31	1,454
Bath and North East Somerset	Chew Valley North	1,923	Somerset North East	952	373	115	0	31	0	0	12	1,483
Bath and North East Somerset	Chew Valley South	2,037	Somerset North East	977	369	86	0	30	0	0	7	1,469
Bath and North East Somerset	Clutton	1,993	Somerset North East	930	463	156	0	36	0	0	9	1,594
Bath and North East Somerset	Farmborough	2,034	Somerset North East	1,021	373	120	0	17	0	0	7	1,538
Bath and North East Somerset	High Littleton	2,358	Somerset North East	1,169	512	139	0	39	0	0	12	1,871
Bath and North East Somerset	Keynsham East	4,412	Somerset North East	1,931	983	333	0	79	0	0	29	3,355
Bath and North East Somerset	Keynsham North	4,001	Somerset North East	1,735	1,171	197	0	80	0	0	18	3,201
Bath and North East Somerset	Keynsham South	4,034	Somerset North East	1,570	1,257	239	0	71	0	0	19	3,156
Bath and North East Somerset	Mendip	2,111	Somerset North East	1,068	444	113	0	36	0	0	8	1,669
Bath and North East Somerset	Midsomer Norton North	4,468	Somerset North East	1,904	1,367	218	0	82	0	0	62	3,633
Bath and North East Somerset	Midsomer Norton Redfield	4,170	Somerset North East	1,870	1,009	206	0	71	0	0	23	3,179
Bath and North East Somerset	Paulton	4,332	Somerset North East	1,459	1,546	182	0	65	0	0	54	3,306
Bath and North East Somerset	Peasedown	4,929	Bath	1,870	1,637	337	0	89	0	0	74	4,007
Bath and North East Somerset	Publow and Whitchurch	2,018	Somerset North East	975	414	100	0	31	0	0	7	1,527
Bath and North East Somerset	Radstock	3,928	Somerset North East	1,400	1,550	381	0	88	0	0	62	3,481
Bath and North East Somerset	Saltford	3,419	Somerset North East	1,515	680	261	0	60	0	0	13	2,529
Bath and North East Somerset	Timsbury	2,067	Somerset North East	834	583	126	0	47	0	0	39	1,629
Bath and North East Somerset	Westfield	4,532	Somerset North East	1,505	1,741	252	0	79	0	0	60	3,637
	Total	68,441		28,993	18,757	4,460	0	1,244	0	0	587	54,041

The full details of these calculations are given on the Somerset North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Somerton and Frome

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Somerton and Frome, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Somerton and Frome				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Mendip	Ammerdown	1,810	Somerset North East	861	199	318	0	65	0	0	22	1,465
Mendip	Beckington and Selwood	1,573	Somerton and Frome	843	172	208	0	55	0	0	18	1,296
Mendip	Butleigh and Baltonsborough	1,702	Somerton and Frome	826	174	303	0	25	0	0	17	1,345
Mendip	Coleford and Holcombe	3,570	Somerset North East	1,782	521	419	0	133	0	0	46	2,901
Mendip	Cranmore, Doulting and Nunney	1,744	Somerton and Frome	821	207	384	0	27	0	0	18	1,457
Mendip	Creech	1,755	Somerton and Frome	821	220	258	0	55	0	0	20	1,374
Mendip	Frome Berkley Down	3,265	Somerton and Frome	1,475	535	587	0	129	0	0	42	2,768
Mendip	Frome College	3,230	Somerton and Frome	1,389	460	687	0	121	0	0	42	2,699
Mendip	Frome Keyford	3,692	Somerton and Frome	1,258	752	750	0	154	0	0	45	2,959
Mendip	Frome Market	3,384	Somerton and Frome	1,416	781	745	0	172	0	0	51	3,165
Mendip	Frome Oakfield	1,791	Somerton and Frome	664	371	430	0	75	0	0	27	1,567
Mendip	Frome Park	3,453	Somerton and Frome	1,269	699	911	0	62	0	0	41	2,982
Mendip	Postlebury	1,637	Somerton and Frome	856	195	218	0	60	0	0	19	1,348
Mendip	Rode and Norton St Philip	1,787	Somerton and Frome	908	160	252	0	27	0	0	24	1,371
Mendip	The Pennards and Ditcheat	1,817	Somerton and Frome	865	153	268	0	23	0	0	26	1,335
South Somerset	Blackmoor Vale	4,169	Somerton and Frome	2,056	465	722	0	59	0	0	58	3,360
South Somerset	Bruton	1,863	Somerton and Frome	1,060	333	288	0	85	0	0	27	1,793
South Somerset	Burrow Hill	1,783	Somerton and Frome	869	203	245	0	25	0	0	18	1,360
South Somerset	Camelot	2,042	Somerton and Frome	1,204	214	222	0	31	0	0	28	1,699
South Somerset	Cary	4,276	Somerton and Frome	1,906	493	808	0	126	0	0	47	3,380
South Somerset	Curry Rivel	2,031	Somerton and Frome	1,074	231	196	0	31	0	0	68	1,600
South Somerset	Islemoor	2,157	Somerton and Frome	1,129	261	282	0	30	0	0	22	1,724
South Somerset	Langport and Huish	2,253	Somerton and Frome	915	357	362	0	81	0	0	26	1,741
South Somerset	Martock	4,332	Somerton and Frome	2,022	606	788	0	65	0	0	46	3,527
South Somerset	Milborne Port	2,188	Somerton and Frome	903	299	465	0	34	0	0	27	1,728
South Somerset	Northstone	2,339	Somerton and Frome	1,192	282	327	0	32	0	0	24	1,857
South Somerset	Tower	1,853	Somerton and Frome	1,033	187	183	0	62	0	0	19	1,484
South Somerset	Turn Hill	2,244	Somerton and Frome	1,081	228	350	0	30	0	0	27	1,716
South Somerset	Wessex	4,089	Somerton and Frome	1,885	643	701	0	62	0	0	49	3,340
South Somerset	Wincanton	3,968	Somerton and Frome	1,850	600	648	0	111	0	0	47	3,256
	Total	77,797		36,233	11,001	13,325	0	2,047	0	0	991	63,597

The full details of these calculations are given on the Somerton and Frome seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wells

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wells, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wells				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Mendip	Ashwick, Chilcompton and Stratton	3,342	Somerset North East	1,635	201	1,010	0	0	0	0	8	2,854
Mendip	Chewton Mendip and Ston Easton	1,611	Somerset North East	855	60	346	0	0	0	0	3	1,264
Mendip	Croscombe and Pilton	1,930	Wells	719	66	526	0	0	0	0	2	1,313
Mendip	Glastonbury St Benedict's	1,734	Wells	731	292	503	0	0	0	0	6	1,532
Mendip	Glastonbury St Edmund's	1,546	Wells	508	152	645	0	0	0	0	4	1,309
Mendip	Glastonbury St John's	1,697	Wells	677	142	402	0	0	0	0	4	1,225
Mendip	Glastonbury St Mary's	1,586	Wells	616	123	467	0	0	0	0	10	1,216
Mendip	Moor	1,968	Wells	794	110	578	0	0	0	0	4	1,486
Mendip	Rodney and Westbury	1,723	Wells	619	66	563	0	0	0	0	5	1,253
Mendip	Shepton East	3,331	Somerset North East	1,306	579	1,232	0	0	0	0	26	3,143
Mendip	Shepton West	3,521	Somerset North East	1,153	677	1,037	0	0	0	0	8	2,875
Mendip	St Cuthbert Out North	1,842	Wells	842	91	478	0	0	0	0	20	1,431
Mendip	Street North	2,773	Wells	1,147	272	920	0	0	0	0	6	2,345
Mendip	Street South	3,530	Wells	1,632	386	1,345	0	0	0	0	44	3,407
Mendip	Street West	1,689	Wells	615	113	472	0	0	0	0	2	1,202
Mendip	Wells Central	1,500	Wells	528	108	510	0	0	0	0	5	1,151
Mendip	Wells St Cuthbert's	3,180	Wells	1,104	543	822	0	0	0	0	7	2,476
Mendip	Wells St Thomas'	3,198	Wells	1,140	186	1,256	0	0	0	0	6	2,588
Mendip	Wookey and St Cuthbert Out West	1,858	Wells	791	105	594	0	0	0	0	8	1,498
Sedgemoor	Axevale	3,248	Wells	1,466	202	836	0	0	0	0	10	2,514
Sedgemoor	Berrow	1,750	Wells	704	103	482	0	0	0	0	8	1,297
Sedgemoor	Burnham Central	5,351	Wells	1,956	467	1,785	0	0	0	0	12	4,220
Sedgemoor	Burnham North	5,030	Wells	2,004	272	1,409	0	0	0	0	18	3,703
Sedgemoor	Cheddar and Shipham	5,521	Wells	2,147	374	1,487	0	0	0	0	9	4,017
Sedgemoor	Highbridge and Burnham Marine	5,683	Wells	1,653	1,049	1,616	0	0	0	0	73	4,391
Sedgemoor	Knoll	3,081	Wells	1,465	140	686	0	0	0	0	5	2,296
Sedgemoor	Wedmore and Mark	3,721	Wells	1,681	248	899	0	0	0	0	6	2,834
	Total	76,944		30,488	7,127	22,906	0	0	0	0	319	60,840

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wells seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Somerset North East

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Somerset North East
Bath and North East Somerset	Bathavon West	1,919	Somerset North East	795	440	150	0	38	0	0	31	1,454
Bath and North East Somerset	Chew Valley North	1,960	Somerset North East	952	373	115	0	31	0	0	12	1,483
Bath and North East Somerset	Chew Valley South	1,940	Somerset North East	977	369	86	0	30	0	0	7	1,469
Bath and North East Somerset	Clutton	2,104	Somerset North East	930	463	156	0	36	0	0	9	1,594
Bath and North East Somerset	Farmborough	2,030	Somerset North East	1,021	373	120	0	17	0	0	7	1,538
Bath and North East Somerset	High Littleton	2,470	Somerset North East	1,169	512	139	0	39	0	0	12	1,871
Bath and North East Somerset	Keynsham East	4,430	Somerset North East	1,931	983	333	0	79	0	0	29	3,355
Bath and North East Somerset	Keynsham North	4,226	Somerset North East	1,735	1,171	197	0	80	0	0	18	3,201
Bath and North East Somerset	Keynsham South	4,166	Somerset North East	1,570	1,257	239	0	71	0	0	19	3,156
Bath and North East Somerset	Mendip	2,202	Somerset North East	1,068	444	113	0	36	0	0	8	1,669
Bath and North East Somerset	Midsomer Norton North	4,797	Somerset North East	1,904	1,367	218	0	82	0	0	62	3,633
Bath and North East Somerset	Midsomer Norton Redfield	4,198	Somerset North East	1,870	1,009	206	0	71	0	0	23	3,179
Bath and North East Somerset	Paulton	4,366	Somerset North East	1,459	1,546	182	0	65	0	0	54	3,306
Bath and North East Somerset	Publow and Whitchurch	2,017	Somerset North East	975	414	100	0	31	0	0	7	1,527
Bath and North East Somerset	Radstock	4,597	Somerset North East	1,400	1,550	381	0	88	0	0	62	3,481
Bath and North East Somerset	Saltford	3,339	Somerset North East	1,515	680	261	0	60	0	0	13	2,529
Bath and North East Somerset	Timsbury	2,151	Somerset North East	834	583	126	0	47	0	0	39	1,629
Bath and North East Somerset	Westfield	4,800	Somerset North East	1,505	1,741	252	0	79	0	0	60	3,637
Mendip	Ammerdown	1,946	Somerton and Frome	861	199	318	0	65	0	0	22	1,465
Mendip	Ashwick, Chilcompton and Stratton	3,867	Wells	1,635	201	1,010	0	0	0	0	8	2,854
Mendip	Chewton Mendip and Ston Easton	1,712	Wells	855	60	346	0	0	0	0	3	1,264
Mendip	Coleford and Holcombe	3,853	Somerton and Frome	1,782	521	419	0	133	0	0	46	2,901
Mendip	Shepton East	4,259	Wells	1,306	579	1,232	0	0	0	0	26	3,143
Mendip	Shepton West	3,895	Wells	1,153	677	1,037	0	0	0	0	8	2,875
	Total	77,244		31,202	17,512	7,736	0	1,178	0	0	585	58,213

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Somerset North East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Jacob Rees-Mogg (CON)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	77,244
Turnout:	75.4%

Somerset North East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Somerset North East: Overview

Introduction